Scientific Aspects of Exit Poles

Dr KK Aggarwal

Exit polls success is based on the principle of collective consciousness. It is nothing but the critical mass above which the generated message spreads like fire.

It has been scientifically observed and proved that rumors spread like wildfire once the critical mass of 1% in the general population is achieved.

Advertisements in newsprints and in electronic media also work on the same principle. In campaigning, if 1% of your voters feel that you should win, the chances are that you will win.

So more the number of exit voters more the chances of it being a reality. If the exit voters count is 1% of the actual voters it will always be true. So, the best answer will be to combine all the exit polls and take an average.

More the number of exit voters less will be the chances of errors.

This observation is based on the famous 100th-monkey phenomenon.

“Long time back there was a monkey called EMO in a far off village in Japan. Monkeys at that time used to eat apples lying in the gardens full of dust. One day EMO by mistake washed the apple in the pond before eating. Why from next time onwards he washed every apple he ate. From one monkey the message went to the second monkey and then to the third and so on. Many monkeys started washing apples before eating. After some time some neighbouring monkeys from other villages also started washing apples before eating. The day 100th monkey washed the apple and ate, a strange phenomenon was observed all over the country. Monkeys all over the country started washing apples before eating. The critical mass in that area, therefore, was 100. Once the critical mass was achieved, the information spread like wildfire to each and every monkey and everybody started washing apples before eating.”

In exit polls also the channels make use of this principle and make sure that the critical mass of exit poll is achieved to start with.

2014 results

CNN-IBN: 261-283

ABP-AC Nielsen: 281

Times Now:  249

Headline Today 261 to 283

Chanakya 340 seats

Cicero 261 and 283

If we take the best option total is 283 +_ 281+ 249 + 283+ 340 + 283 divided by 6 = 286 +- 5% error= 301

2019 election; Add all exit polls result and take an average.

Reaction to exit polls

What happens if you lose or win in an exit poll. If you lose, you are likely to go into depression for 3 months. On the other hand, a lot of physical and biochemical changes are seen in the person who win. The power of chair (kursi ka nasha) is tremendous. It boosts the levels of serotonin in the blood. The person starts performing better, sleeps less during the night and produces results which he may have never produced in the past.

All politicians fighting the election and diabetics, hypertensives or heart patient should take their low dose regular aspirin now as it reduces chances of stress induced heart attacks precipitation.